Crypto Bull Run Dead? Analyst Says The Real Top Isn’t Here Yet

Top analyst Miles Deutscher says the crypto market’s apparent fatigue is being misread. In a new video titled “Why The Crypto Bull Run Is Far From Over (Data Says This Happens Next),” the commentator—who has more than 630,000 followers on X—argues that both macro and market-structure signals point to an extended cycle, with Ethereum poised to lead even if Bitcoin cools.Crypto Cycle Dead?Deutscher opens by cutting against a swelling narrative that Bitcoin “has potentially put in a top,” acknowledging that spot price action “objectively looks quite weak at the moment.” Yet, he stresses, “I don’t believe the cycle is over,” and lays out what he considers the telltale sign of a real top—one that he says has not materialized.On the shorter time frame, he notes BTC slipped below a channel low but is attempting to reclaim the mid-range, highlighting a near-term “bearish retest at the H4 money noodle.” He calls the $111.5k area a line in the sand, with a push and hold back above ~$114k needed to repair structure. For clarity, he describes his “noodle” as a custom moving-average style trend gauge: “just our custom indicator which is basically a moving average.”Where Bitcoin looks “a little bit toppy,” Deutscher says Ethereum’s daily structure “paints a very different picture.” ETH, he argues, is showing a classic compression beneath major resistance around its prior all-time high while “grinding above the money noodle,” a configuration he believes sets up “the next expansive leg to the upside” if the daily trend base is maintained.A central plank of his thesis is the cycle’s alignment with broader risk indicators. Reading from a post by trader Nik (@cointradernik), he underscores that several risk-on ratios look like they are bottoming, not topping—US micro caps versus small caps, emerging markets versus the FTSE 100, ARK-style growth versus gold—suggesting the business cycle is still advancing rather than rolling over.In that context, Deutscher contends it would be unusual for crypto to peak now unless it consciously decoupled from equities. He further frames a policy backdrop he sees as supportive, pointing to political rhetoric favorable to crypto assets and the prospect of rate cuts later this year; he characterizes the current market “jitteriness” as a function of timing uncertainty rather than a structural turn.He also revisits Bitcoin’s higher-time-frame rhythm since 2023 as a sequence of “rally-base-rally” phases with recurring retests of a weekly trend marker. In that pattern, he argues, even a drop toward ~$100,000 would be a textbook bull-market pullback, not a terminal break, especially given what he calls today’s comparatively modest extension above long-term averages versus 2021 and late-2024. “Anyone whose view is that Bitcoin has topped for the cycle here at $124,000 will be deeply disappointed in the relative shallowness of this correction,” he says, asserting that distance to key moving averages leaves less room for a deep retrace.The Altcoin RotationThe most controversial—and for crypto traders, arguably the most consequential—part of Deutscher’s analysis is historical altcoin rotation. He says prior cycles show that Ethereum often does its strongest work after Bitcoin tops. “In 2017 Bitcoin topped and traded 47% lower as Ethereum rallied 100% higher in the next 30 days,” he claims. “In 2021, Bitcoin topped [and] went 27% lower as ETH rallied…83% higher in the next 30 days.”While he is not declaring a BTC top now, he argues the crypto market is already exhibiting a “decoupling” in which ETH and other altcoins are grinding higher against BTC even as Bitcoin softens—proof, in his view, that “using Bitcoin as your ultimate bull-market indicator” for alts can be misleading when Ethereum’s structure is this strong.That view informs his positioning. Rather than longing Bitcoin at support, he says he’s increasingly using BTC dips as “confluence to take a trade on Ethereum because I think Ethereum outperforms from here on out.” On camera, he disclosed a growing ETH long in a public “fun trading account,” while emphasizing that “most people would be better off sticking mostly to spot” and that any use of leverage should be small, deliberate and within strict risk parameters. “There were many times where I’ve screwed up by being over-leveraged,” he cautions.Beyond trade setup and crypto cycle theory, Deutscher returns to his original premise: a genuine cycle top generally coincides with a topping business cycle, deteriorating breadth in risk assets, and blow-off dynamics he says are absent today. Summarizing his stance, he concludes that neither Bitcoin nor altcoins have topped “due to where we are in the business cycle,” and even if BTC does mark a high sooner than he expects, “I wouldn’t necessarily take that as the ultimate bear signal for ETH and alts.”At press time, BTC traded at $113,028.Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei NewsBTC Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei NewsBTC