Grüezi! Sie wurden auf finanzen.ch, unser Portal für Schweizer Anleger, weitergeleitet.  Zurück zu finanzen.net geht es hier.
SMI 11’778 0.9%  SPI 15’142 0.9%  Dow 32’223 0.1%  DAX 14’175 1.5%  Euro 1.0466 0.1%  EStoxx50 3’742 1.6%  Gold 1’829 0.3%  Bitcoin 30’380 1.5%  Dollar 0.9956 -0.6%  Öl 115.0 0.8% 
22.12.2021 14:30:37

Schroders: Outlook 2022: CIO and Multi-Asset

Johanna Kyrklund
Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Multi-Asset Investment

  • Equity returns will be more muted, but still positive, in 2022, supported by solid corporate earnings.
  • Inflation remains a concern and will put pressure on central banks to start to raise rates.
  • The latest Covid-19 variant - Omicron - is already leading to partial lockdowns, which could lead to slower growth at the start of 2022.

Fund managers tend to have a fairly miserable disposition because, even when performance is strong, you inevitably worry about how you are going to generate returns in the future. After such a strong year for markets, this concern is even more pronounced. Last year, the vaccine announcements inspired confidence in a "reopening trade" which offered high returns with limited risks.

Looking at our models, we are now entering a more mature phase of the economic cycle when growth momentum peaks and central banks begin to withdraw support. Against this backdrop, we expect equity returns to be more muted but still positive, supported by solid corporate earnings.

What are the key risks to this view?

Inflation is a popular theme, and we would agree that over the medium term we are likely to be in a more inflationary environment compared to the last decade, driven by rising wages, deglobalisation and decarbonisation. In the shorter term we expect inflation momentum to peak as supply bottlenecks ease, but central banks are still likely to raise interest rates.

At stock level, it is important to identify those companies with pricing power given the risk to profit margins that higher input costs and wages pose, as these will be better placed to weather the storm. However, we do not believe that inflation poses a systemic risk for markets yet as the willingness of central banks to start raising rates in response to inflationary pressures should keep inflation expectations in check.

The Omicron variant of Covid-19 remains a concern

Covid-19 continues to cause volatility, with the latest variant, Omicron, renewing these concerns. It is important to step back and acknowledge that we've come a long way since the first quarter of 2020. Levels of immunity are considerably higher, even in the face of mutations; governments have become more experienced and react more quickly; and the processes of how to develop new vaccines are increasingly efficient and streamlined. Market participants have also developed a framework to consider the virus.

We have moved on significantly from the extreme uncertainty of early 2020. Nevertheless, early indications suggest that Omicron can evade some of the protection afforded by vaccines, which is already leading to partial lockdowns. It'll be a slow start to the year in terms of growth.

In an ideal world, we would be seeing a strong synchronised global economic recovery which would allow us to rotate into more cyclical and cheaper exposures. The onset of Omicron makes this less likely.

The one area that could surprise is China where, unlike other major economies, policy is turning stimulative.

You can watch Schroders TV - Outlook 2022 with Keith Wade and Johanna Kyrklund by clicking the play button at the top of your screen.

Opportunities remain, but we mustn’t over-steer

Our biggest concern is that we are having to favour trends which are old and rather tired, and in danger of exhaustion: US exceptionalism (the idea that the US is seen, both domestically and internationally, as superior to other nations) and the unrelenting search for yield.

Given our expectation that any rise in bond yields will be contained, we think it is too early to take advantage of mean reversion opportunities, as juicy as they may seem, and we must resist the temptation to over-steer.

As fiscal support is reined in, the private sector will have to take on the baton of growth

In recent years, we compared the global economy to a "wobbly bicycle", where a lack of economic momentum left us vulnerable to being blown off course by any gust of wind. The pandemic forced governments to put stabilisers on the wobbly bicycle, allowing us some reprieve from cyclical volatility. Those stabilisers will be coming off in 2022 and the private sector will have to take on the baton of growth.

My more technical colleagues would describe the potential distribution of outcomes as "platykurtic", a more muted upside with elevated risks. In more simple terms, diversify your risk - this is not a time for big bets.

Important Information: This communication is marketing material. The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author(s) on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Schroders communications, strategies or funds. This material is intended to be for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Reliance should not be placed on the views and information in this document when taking individual investment and/or strategic decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of an investment can go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. All investments involve risks including the risk of possible loss of principal. Information herein is believed to be reliable but Schroders does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Some information quoted was obtained from external sources we consider to be reliable. No responsibility can be accepted for errors of fact obtained from third parties, and this data may change with market conditions. This does not exclude any duty or liability that Schroders has to its customers under any regulatory system. Regions/ sectors shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy/sell. The opinions in this material include some forecasted views. We believe we are basing our expectations and beliefs on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of what we currently know. However, there is no guarantee than any forecasts or opinions will be realised. These views and opinions may change. The content is issued by Schroder Investment Management Limited, 1 London Wall Place, London EC2Y 5AU. Registered No. 1893220 England. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.


BITCOIN KURSZIEL 100'000 US-DOLLAR? WELCHER COIN KÖNNTE DER NÄCHSTE VERDOPPLER SEIN?

Informieren Sie sich aus erster Hand über Nachrichten, die Krypto-Kurse bewegen. Abonnieren Sie jetzt kostenlos unseren neuen Krypto-Newsletter!

Fondsfinder

Nachrichten

  • Nachrichten zu Fonds
  • Alle Nachrichten

finanzen.net News

Datum Titel
{{ARTIKEL.NEWS.HEAD.DATUM | date : "HH:mm" }}
{{ARTIKEL.NEWS.BODY.TITEL}}
pagehit