State Street Global Advisors: Q4 Bond Compass: Den Defiziten und der Inflation trotzen

Q4 Bond Compass:

Den Defiziten und der Inflation trotzen

In unserem jüngster Bond Compass zeigen wir auf, warum fiskalische Defizite und eine weiterhin hartnäckige Inflation Investoren vor Herausforderungen stellen. Wir beurteilen dabei sowohl die aktuelle Anlegerpositionierung als auch die gegenwärtige Inflationsdynamik - und skizzieren dabei die Chancen für festverzinsliche Wertpapiere.

Die führt uns zu 3 Schlüsselthemen für dieses Quartal:

• Kurzfristiges Denken annehmen

Die US-Notenbank hat den Zinssenkungszyklus wieder aufgenommen. Dennoch bleibt das lange Ende der Zinskurve angesichts hoher Haushaltsdefizite und persistenter Inflation anfällig. Auch im Vereinigten Königreich sorgen Inflationsdruck und fiskalische Herausforderungen für erhöhte Unsicherheit. Vor diesem Hintergrund erscheint das kurze Ende der Kurve weiterhin attraktiv - insbesondere für Investoren, die auf Liquidität und Risikokontrolle achten.

• Credit, wem Credit gebührt

Enge Credit Spreads signalisieren in unseren Augen ein erhöhtes Risiko, insbesondere bei nachlassender makroökonomischer Dynamik oder einer Rückkehr der Inflation - ein Szenario, das wir für möglich und wahrscheinlich halten. Ein Fokus auf qualitativ hochwertige, kurzlaufende Instrumente wie Unternehmensanleihen mit Investment Grade und AAA-besicherte Collateralised Loan Obligations (CLOs) kann daher die Widerstandsfähigkeit von Portfolios deutlich erhöhen. Eine Verlängerung der Duration zur Renditeoptimierung ist derzeit nicht empfehlenswert.

• Diversifizieren als Wachstumstreiber: Chancen bei Schwellenländeranleihen und Wandelanleihen

Viele Vermögenswerte sind spät im Zyklus hoch bewertet, daher ist Diversifizierung der Schlüssel. Die aktuell wiederbelebte Risikobereitschaft könnte daher Wandelanleihen beflügeln, während ein disinflationärer Trend und ein nachlassender Dollar Schwellenländeranleihen in Lokalwährung stützen könnte.

Darüber hinaus beschreibt unsere PriceStats-Analyse® die hartnäckige Inflation und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Anleihemärkte. Lesen Sie den vollständigen Bond Compass für detaillierte Analysen und Empfehlungen:

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